My NFL Week 1 research begins tomorrow, so it's last call to preview the 2024 NFL season as a whole and to recap what we learned during the offseason. We'll circle back to this column after the regular season to laugh at how wrong I'll be at some things.

NFL Win Total Predictions

AFC East

• 4th seed. Jets (10-7) - It's not just Aaron Rodgers returning. New York added Mike Williams, three OTs, and a RG to an offensive mix that features two super star skill players. As long as they don't severely miss EDGE1 Bryce Huff, this defense projects to be near the top-5. That's the recipe of a division winner, even if that Achilles can't leave our collective minds.

• 5th seed. Dolphins (10-7) - There are too many huge names on defense that are either out of town or coming back from serious injuries to ignore. I have them 20th entering the year, but there's nothing like Mike McDaniel's speed on offense. Career-year Jaylen Waddle and more RB depth should be enough to win some shoot outs. Oh, and nobody can guard Tyreek Hill still.

• 7th seed. Bills (9-8) - The defense seems to figure it out no matter what, but this is the worst their LB and S group has been since coach Sean McDermott joined, at least until (if) LB Matt Milano (torn biceps) returns. Josh Allen will play a more balanced offense without any downfield threats and with a a more run-focused OC in Joe Brady. There will be tough, close games all year long. Advantage: Allen.

• Patriots (4-13) - We all know how bad the OL and skill groups are, and the track record of rookie QBs in this league, but the Patriots' defense is trending towards regression, too. No co-worker Bill Belichick to scheme things up. No Matthew Judon (trade). No Christian Barmore (blood clots). Unless Drake Maye pulls a C.J. Stroud, this team is in trouble. I loved Maye's long-term potential. He does need to clean up his accuracy and pocket navigation to get there. (Perhaps the 2025 1st-overall pick will help.)

AFC North

• 3rd seed. Ravens (11-6) - Lamar Jackson enters year two with a more pass-heavy OC, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Derrick Henry. Their pass game should look more consistent, even if this OL is missing multiple starters and can't bank on LT Ronnie Stanley like they could years ago. Defensively, they have too many stars (including 1st-round rookie CB Nate Wiggins) to not flirt with a top-3 unit again, even if they lost a million coaches. I have them 2nd on defense.

• 6th seed. Bengals (9-8) - The vibes around Joe Burrow's wrist and Ja'Marr Chase's hold-in linger in my mind, but Cincy added plays to their book late last year and a potential star in 1st-round RT Amarius Mims for the home stretch. They'll have to put up points with a defense that lacks elite-level talent. At least they gave DC Lou Anaroumo new safeties to game plan with.

• Browns (9-8) - The bar for Deshaun Watson is incredibly low. He has the No. 1 defense, a high-level play caller, an above-average OL, and a deep group of pass-game weapons to work with. Even average QB play would be enough for double digit wins. It's unclear if Watson still can move around and throw with touch like he did with the Texans or if his shoulder can hold up for the entire year. If he rebounds, the ceiling is higher than many believe. They just miss the playoffs here.

• Steelers (7-10) - Coach Mike Tomlin was quite lucky in recent seasons to get to a .500 record, but luck runs out in the AFC North when these QBs actually stay healthy. The Steelers are essentially doomed on offense, especially if RT Broderick Jones doesn't live up to his 1st-round draft capital. The defense is still really good, but that can only get a team so far. George Pickens and/or the OL have to take their hypothetical leaps for the Steelers to be in the Wild Card mix. I think Pickens can. The rest? Unsure.

AFC South

• 2nd seed. Texans (11-6) - C.J. Stroud has the 2nd-most passing yards and touchdowns in my projections now that the offense will be top-12 in neutral pass rate behind a hopefully healthier OL. But the secret to the Texans' upcoming success will be their underrated defense led by coach Demeco Ryans, two elite edge rushers (Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter), a for real CB1 (Derek Stingley), and a rangy deep safety (Jalen Pitre). Believe in the hype ... on both sides.

• Jaguars (9-8) - If I had more huevos, I would've put them in the damn playoffs. Trevor Lawrence is on the verge of finally breaking into the top-10 QB ranks with what I believe to be an upgraded skill group (Brian Thomas Jr. > Calvin Ridley). That said, the real gains could come defensively under new DC Ryan Nielsen, who has more to work with talent-wise in Jacksonville than what he had in Atlanta last year. All it takes is for Travon Walker, BTJ, or the OL to have a breakout season to get this team over the hump.

• Colts (8-9) - Indy has a difference-making play caller with upgraded weapons, so there's lift-off potential if Anthony Richardson is ready for it. AR's best ball is really exciting and it doesn't just come as a runner. He can read defenses, push the ball downfield, and avoid sacks. That said, he's still highly inexperienced and does struggle with accuracy. Can that be fixed this early into his long career? We'll see. He won't get much help on defense with one of the worst secondaries. This will be a fun, scrappy team that may turn out to be equally frustrating.

• Titans (6-11) - The defense goes from concerning to average with multiple key starters added at all three levels. Without them, the Titans had bottom-out downside. Instead, they should be competitive all year. It just comes down to Will Levis in a wildly-different offense. His decision-making, pocket movement, and accuracy have been concerning back to his Penn State and Kentucky days. I'm not sure Calvin Ridley as a deep threat is enough to fix those foundational issues.

AFC West

• 1st seed. Chiefs (13-4) - This looks like a legacy year for Patrick Mahomes. He has a real 3-WR set for the first time in forever, and the quartet of Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, DC Steve Spagnolu, and Chris Jones all return for a Super Bowl three peat. If Mahomes can throw deep again, I'm unsure there's an avenue to stop the KC aerial attack. Don't rule out 5,000 and 45 for the likely MVP... And the defense checks at No. 4 in my preseason rankings. Good luck, NFL.

• Chargers (8-9) - Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert, and a top-5 OL are enough to stay competitive all year long, but this is a rebuild year. The skill group's ceiling is low (even if Ladd McConkey is a slot-plus receiver out of the gate), and the oft-injured defense lacks depth. Joey Bosa playing with a huge wrist wrap isn't the sign that this unit will surprise. They'll need new DC Jesse Minter to bring the magic he had at Michigan. They'll do cool things on that side of the ball. They just need more dudes to execute.

• Broncos (6-11) - Bo Nix is extremely accurate (not just looking at his completion percentage either!) and can make some plays out of structure. His flaw of happy feeting his way into trouble should be mitigated by a quick-hitting Sean Payton offense, but where are the yards after catch threats in Denver? More importantly, where are the defensive stars beyond Patrick Surtain. This team will be feistier throughout the year, but they don't have the high-end talent to close out games. Hopefully Payton is patient.

• Raiders (5-12) - EDGE Maxx Crosby and new DT Christian Wilkins will be a very fun combo on an emerging above-average defense, but it won't matter if Vegas can't put up points by the trade deadline. Gardner Minshew and a flawed OL isn't my favorite pairing, especially with defense-minded Antonio Pierce and new OC Luke Getsy calling the shots. Brock Bowers is the true headliner here, and it's easy to get him completions in the slot and flats. His role could blossom down the stretch if Davante Adams is moved near the deadline. The Raiders need to be competent early, or else the ownership group will be having Bill Belichick dreams ASAP.

NFC East

• 1st seed. Eagles (12-5) - Jalen Hurts being healthy and adapting to a new scheme should be all this team needs to make another NFC Championship run (assuming new OC Kellen Moore and Hurts can handle the blitz without C Jason Kelce to sort things out). The skill group and OL groups are deep, and the defense added multiple starters this offseason. EDGE Bryce Huff, 1st-round CB Quinyon Mitchell, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Hall Of Fame DC Vic Fangio are enough to have league-average hopes on defense. If their 1st-round DL talent ever lives up to expectations, look out.

• 6th seed. Cowboys (10-7) - A total collapse is impossible with Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons, and CeeDee Lamb, but there are some vulnerabilities. They couldn't stop the run down the stretch and don't have the bodies to fix that problem, their top-two CBs are both dealing with injuries, and there are two rookie starters on the OL. Adding DC Mike Zimmer is a fun wrinkle, however, and the Cowboys were 3rd in expected points last year for a reason. Stars make up for lackluster depth... and those rookie linemen do look good so far.

• Giants (7-10) - Rookie super star WRs have been changing outlooks immediately, and Malik Nabers is exactly that. Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll (somehow) led a No. 12 EPA offense two years ago without an above-average receiver, so there is at least a path to competence after a disasterous 2023 campaign. Having All Pro LT Andrew Thomas healthy is a start. The defense also has a chance to gel. Trading for Brian Burns rounds out a great defensive line, and 2023 1st-rounder Deonte Banks has a top-10 CB ceiling. There's too little depth in the secondary and skill group to really take off, but the Giants should be feister than many believe.

• Commanders (5-12) - The sheer volume of moving parts is a lot to overcome. Both sides of the ball have new coaches and new players. New OC Kliff Kingsbury will attempt to keep Jayden Daniels upright behind a very bad OL by spamming screens and RPOs, but we'll see if there's enough yards after the catch ability for that offense to matter. Daniels also needs to prove if he can hang in the pocket under durress. Dan Quinn inherits last year's No. 32 EPA defense, and the main acquistions this offseason were two LBs (one being 34-year-old Bobby Wagner), a 2nd-round DT, and a 2nd-round slot CB.

NFC North

• 2nd seed. Lions (11-6) - The passing offense was 4th in EPA. The rushing, 7th. Dan Campbell is aggressively inteligent, and lucky to have OC Ben Johnson in town again. Jared Goff's limitations have diminished over time, and he has the quick-hitting weapons and strong OL to make him flirt with top-6 numbers. The defense is what makes this team ready for a Super Bowl run, however. They've added two starting-level CBs to star nickel Brian Branch and took shots on DT D.J. Reader and EDGE2 Marcus Davenport to get Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeil some help. Don't be surprised if this is a top-10 defense, too.

• 5th seed. Packers (11-6) - This team would win many divisions and are a threat, even if they are in a wild card spot. They were 1st in EPA per play from Week 12 on last year with a very young roster that mostly returns. Coach Matt LaFleur deserves more buzz as an elite play caller and developer, after turning Jordan Love into a real top-10 QB. The defense typically underwhelms, but a new DC and starting safety could make these 7 1st-round draft picks play together. If so, this team could be a surprise in the Super Bowl.

• 7th seed. Bears (10-7) - Caleb Williams' ability to play within structure and within the pocket goes overlooked because he's so special out of it. With these weapons, Williams should hit the ground running, and this defense should flirt with top-5 numbers. Montez Sweat is the headliner of the group up front, but this is the most well-rounded back seven in the NFL. The LBs, CBs, and Ss are all really damn good. From Week 9 on, they were 5th in EPA allowed. It's rare for rookie QBs to make the playoffs, but the Trojan is ripe for it.

• Vikings (7-10) - Coach Kevin O'Connell, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and a very competent OL are enough for Sam Darnold to put up numbers on offense. The question is if he'll turn the ball over too much for it to matter in the W-L column. Darnold is athletic with a solid arm, but he can't have happy feet this late into his career. The defense remains a boom-bust unit, one that is trying to replace EDGE Danielle Hunter with three new pass rushers. DC Brian Flores will bring chaos with his pre- and post-snap looks and league-leading 52% blitz rate. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it leads to big plays. The lack of back-seven super star talent is reason for pause.

NFC South

• 4th seed. Buccaneers (9-8) - The trenches are won in Tampa, especially if 1st-round C Graham Barton turns into the Pro Bowl looking player we saw in the preseason. Tampa couldn't run the ball last year because of their interior. What if that changes now? It's a good set up for Baker Mayfield to have a more balanced team with two rookie skill players now hitting the rotation, too. The defense will miss CB1 Carlton Davis, but they are really deep on the line, still have LB Lavonte David, and have one of the best safety duos. With Todd Bowles' schematic advantages (3rd in blitz rate), they should hold up on defense even if the corners have me worried.

• Falcons (8-9) - Atlanta is ushering in a new head coach, OC, DC, QB, and key defensive starters. That's a lot to iron out right off the bat before getting to the injury risk associated with Kirk Cousins, Kyle Pitts, Grady Jarrett, and Matthew Judon. If things click, they have enough star talent to run away with the division. If there are some hiccups, then a frustrating .500 season can be expected. We didn't get any preseason snaps out of Cousins to see where he is athletically.

• Saints (6-11) - Only two other teams are expected to shave off more points on offense from last year's totals to this year's projections than New Orleans, per the betting markets. A lot of that can be contributed to starting a former RT (who I projected to guard) at LT and having a 1st-round LT bust at RT. What can go wrong? Derek Carr's splits with pressure are more drastic than most veterans, and I'm not sure new OC Klint Kubiak is going to scheme things up around a fragile skill group. The defense has been good to great for years, but they are getting older and have had their numbers be inflated by a poor schedule.

• Panthers (5-12) - Bryce Young has a chance with Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, a re-worked OL, and coach Dave Canales, but nobody should sell you on this being even an average group to work with. If Young maxes out as a distributor type, then Carolina is in trouble again. He can't drift into pressure or turn down throws like he did as a rookie, but those were things Canales fixed with Mayfield last season. Defensively, they're without EDGE1 Brian Burns and were already 32nd in pressure rate. They will be one of the worst units.

NFC West

• 3rd seed. 49ers (11-6) - The offense speaks for itself, though it is a little concerning Hall of Fame LT Trent Williams isn't with the team right now. But there is no stopping this offense when the boys are healthy, especially if Brock Purdy keeps lowering his turnover-worthy plays. However, the defense isn't quite as good as it was during the peak. They'll need their new DL rotation, LB2, and secondary pieces to click right away to return to the top-10, even if Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are studs like usual. There's hope that the new coordinator blitzes and changes the picture post-snap more than last year's static play calling.

• Rams (10-7) - When Kyren Williams and Matthew Stafford were on the field together, the Rams were 2nd in EPA per play. It's possible the OL has been upgraded and Cooper Kupp rebounds, too. The feels too good to be true based on the injuries they picked up during the offseason, but LA has top-5 offensive potential. They'll need to come close to that to overcome an Aaron Donald-less defense, one that also traded away their productive green dotted LB in August. The NFC is better now than it was going into last year, so it's more difficult to sneak them into the playoffs now. But I have hopes of a very fun offense.

• Seahawks (8-9) - Seattle's coaching changes have me more fired up than anyone's. Coach Mike MacDonald called a very versatile defense with the Ravens, but it could take them more than a year to get the talent required to run it properly (hint: rangy LBs). The offense should be ready to go immediately. Geno Smith can sling it, and new OC Ryan Grubb calls a sophisticated downfield passing attack that uses modern approaches like RPOs, play actions, bunch sets, and pre-snap motion. They have the 3-WR set, TE, and RB duo to be a tough out every single week. They miss the playoffs here because the OL and DL has me nervous.

• Cardinals (7-10) - This looks like the best "bad" team in the NFL (complementary). They are well coached on both sides of the ball and have enough offensive fire power to surprise any team. Kyler Murray with an under center ground game and a downfield threat in Marvin Harrison Jr is worth getting excited about. Trey McBride might be the best young TE in the game, too. The defense is just a lot to overcome. DC Nick Rallis doesn't have a pass rush yet and only has competent secondary play from his safeties on paper. Arizona does look to have the leadership in place for long-term success.

NFL Award Predictions

• MVP votes: Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love. There are so many good QBs right now. We are blessed. Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams, and Justin Herbert are all good enough to be in the mix, too, if their surroundings can be good enough to win 11+ games.

• OPOY votes: CeeDee Lamb, Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill. No surprises here. The top-3 WRs get more volume than anyone else when they are healthy, and CMC vs. Breece will be a race to 350 touches and 15-20 TDs. If the Jets stay healthy, Breece could be the surprise winner here (+1500).

• DPOY votes: Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, T.J. Watt, Will Anderson. This typically goes to an edge rusher on a top-10 defense. All roughly check those boxes, but Garrett is comfortably the best defender on the planet. He just has to stay healthy (+800).

• OROY votes: Caleb Williams, Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison, Xavier Worthy, and Brian Thomas. This is also a loaded WR class, but Williams is both good enough to run away with this by himself and is on a team that I project to sneak into the playoffs. The other rookie QBs don't have either.

• DROY votes: EDGE Laiatu Latu, EDGE Dallas Turner, LB Junior Colson, CB Terrion Arnold, CB Quinyon Mitchell. The top edge rushers typically have the advantage here, but Colson could be an early-season contributor in a Chargers defense that he literally played in last season. The tackle volume could be enough for a dart throw win (+3500). It's hard for a corner to show up in these votes because the voters aren't grinding the damn tape, but Arnold is a starter on a Lions defense that could go from bottom 10 to top 10 this year.

• COTY votes: This is a broken award. It's basically the coach of the team that surprised the most, instead of going to Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, or Sean McVay every year. If we're playing by the dumb way to hand out the award, then give me Mike MacDonald, Matt Eberflus, Brian Daboll, Jonathan Gannon, or Raheem Morris.

My Fantasy Football Exposures

I drafted 164 teams (and counting) on Underdog Fantasy this season. Here are some of my boldest moves with the context that 8.3% is the standard drafted rate for the top 150 players:

• Breece Hall (21%), Justin Jefferson (17%), and A.J. Brown (14%) were my biggest stances in the 1st round. I sacrificed Ja'Marr Chase (0%), Bijan Robinson (3%), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (1%) to pull this off, but I feel good about the first three players being better real life players with a better track record of spike weeks. Chase's lack of practice due to hold in paired Joe Burrow's wrist injury had me spooked in the top 5.

• My most drafted player was Josh Jacobs (26%). It wouldn't have been as high if he hadn't dropped to the 5th round for most of the summer. Jacobs is coming off a terrible year, but the difference between the Packers and Raiders can't be overlooked. He's still only 26 years old and has a long history of major volume (20.6 career opportunities per game). If coach Matt LaFleur's "history" of using two backs goes away because Aaron Jones and Jacobs are built compleltely oppositely, then we have a legitimate league winner within the range of outcomes. Just as important was the major dropoff from the QBs, WRs, and TEs that were in Round 4 to where Jacobs was in Round 5.

• My most drafted teams were the Rams (6.8% of all picks), Packers (5.1%), Cowboys (4.9%), and Chiefs (4.5%). That feels good. Really good. The Rams' rate escalated because of the late-round stacking opportunities; Matthew Stafford (15%), Demarcus Robinson (25%), and Colby Parkinson (24%). But the high-upside use of Sean McVay's RBs had me drafting Kyren Williams (24%) in Round 3 and Blake Corum (17%).

• My least drafted teams were the Raiders (1%), Commanders (1%), Buccaneers (1%), and Titans (1%). Once again, this feels really good. These coaching staffs and quarterbacks aren't for me, and aside from Rachaad White, their RBs are in likely committees. In half PPR best ball, we need some damn TDs. I'll take my chances fading the garbage time receptions and potential scrambling of Jayden Daniels.

Here are my top player exposures:

• I had more 3-QB builds than normal this year because I spent up at RB more than ever, sometimes even stopping at 4 RBs if they were drafted early enough. That explains my free Daniel Jones (18%), Bo Nix (10%), and Sam Darnold (8%) exposures, as I liked their top wide receivers at cost and didn't mind their sneaky rushing abilities even if they weren't double or triple stacked. The Geno Smith (17%) and Matthew Stafford (15%) picks play into the advantage of stacking pure pocket passers in best ball with their TD-dependent TEs. It was a bonus that these QB-TE pairings came after the major dropoff at RB and WR in the teen rounds.

• Among the elites, my preferences were Patrick Mahomes (14%) with his 4+ stacking partners, CJ Stroud (12%), and Jalen Hurts (12%), who is my QB1 overall now that he has a competent coordinator and his health back. Fading Josh Allen (4%) and Lamar Jackson (3%) were the price I paid, but their stacking partners weren't targets at costs. I don't have any regrets with these.

• I really leaned into my two main principles for half PPR best ball running backs: be big enough to handle a big workload and/or play for a good offense. The only exceptions were Najee Harris (Steelers, but big) and Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots, but also big). We've at least seen each of them have top-12 stretches before and are in their primes. It's probably a good sign that Najee was a good pick when the Zero RB cabal was targeting him at cost.

• For 2024, I created a new principle, however; Cowboy or Bengal RB no matter what. Rico Dowdle (21%) has no experience but has juice and little competition attached to Dak Prescott, and Zack Moss (20%) more closely resembles the valuable Joe Mixon role and has the history of being heavily involved. I understand anyone who took Zeke or Chase Brown, but these were my "trust the tape" selections for the season. It's also worth pointing out the systematic picks I made with coach Matt LaFleur (Josh Jacobs at 26% and Marshawn Lloyd at 15%) and coach Sean McVay (Kyren Williams at 24% and Blake Corum at 17%). These dudes can coach.

• Jaylen Waddle (21%) and Brandon Aiyuk (17%) are certified ballers who just need some injury or game script luck to walk into the top-10 WR category. They were my Round 2/3 targets the entire offseason, especially as Aiyuk's price dipped during the unwarranted panic. By the end of the year, I really warmed up to Cooper Kupp (13%) and Malik Nabers (9%), too.

• The rest of my exposures were saved for the middle rounds because I often took multiple detours in Rounds 3-7 to buy the dip on the discounted RB prices. The headliners were the rookies, in particular T-Law's new WR1 Brian Thomas Jr. (26%), Herbert's PPR scam Ladd McConkey (17%), Andy Reid joystick Xavier Worthy (14%), and Caleb's long-term WR1 Rome Odunze (10%). They went close enough together that it was hard to get a ton of all of them, but these were some of the best picks of the summer. This is an incoming rookie class that'll live up to the hype.

• But I didn't just sort by age either. The olds were my favorite picks in the 100s after the, you know, good rookies were drafted. Courtland Sutton (21%) was an ADP riser for good reason, as was the easily stackable Demarcus Robinson (25%) and Brandin Cooks (20%). The YPRR sorters don't love their effeciency, but they score TDs and don't leave the field. The latter two have contingent-based upside, too.

• Speaking of contingent upside, welcome to my life Andrei Iosivas (18%). Let's see if this Ja'Marr Chase stuff corrects itself with under a week to go. Even if it does, Iosivas has the Tyler Boyd role locked up per camp reports. This was my fancy boy play of the year.

• I mixed in more "elite TEs" than normal, but even calling this group of guys "elite" is disrespectful to the numbers prime Kelce, Gronk, Graham, Gates, and Gonzalez were putting up. Travis Kelce (10%) was a late Round 3 excuse to draft my true target, Patrick Mahomes, in Round 4. Ditto to Mark Andrews (9%) and Lamar Jackson whenever they could be paired together at the Round 4/5 turn. Neither were must picks to me, but the elite QB stack was hard to turn down. If there was a skill-based elite I liked best, it was Trey McBride (9%), who enters the prime of his career with an offense that leans on their TEs more than anyone's. He's likely better than Dalton Kincaid (3%) and was more pallatably priced than Sam LaPorta (3%).

• Instead, the next tier of TEs led off what typically turned out to be a 3-TE build. David Njoku (25%) put up the same numbers as any TE over a 12-game stretch last year and looked great on tape doing so, yet went in Round 9. I still don't know why. And Jake Ferguson (11%) gets positive regression on his side this year, while having the sneaky contingent value if CeeDee Lamb ever missed time. These were my two favorite picks at the position.

• The late round TE group was good, not great, just because there were fewer options. Colby Parkinson (24%) has system and paycheck on his side, as does Noah Fant (24%). Their size and tape don't hold them back in obvious ways either. Juwan Johnson (21%) became completely free in Round 18 because of an offseason surgery that'll cost him 0-1 games. Thank you!!! Hunter Henry (20%) and Tyler Conklin (19%) are ole reliables in offenses without much depth at WR. They just need some random TDs to pay off. I don't see a LaPorta or McBride here, but these are candidates to be the next Ferguson, Engram, Schultz, or Kmet. I don't think we pretent any of these TEs are world beaters, but they have gone on top-10 TE runs for different reasons.