NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings - The Blueprint
Expect Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings updates through Sunday morning when we're live on YouTube. We're posting more videos than ever on our channel, which means less writing for me this year. Instead of writing up every single player, I'll focus on the guys worth writing about. You can watch my takes on all players every week on YouTube. You guys support me 500x more on that platform than as a writer, and I have to skate to where the puck is. I hope you guys understand.
Week 1 RB Rankings
Christian McCaffrey - 114.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Hall of Fame LT Trent Williams is on pace to miss for contractual reasons. It's poor timing with Quinnen Williams and Javon Kinlaw and stud LBs coming into San Francisco. Of course, CMC is still him.
Breece Hall - 93.5 total yards in Pick'em.
49ers allowed the 3rd-highest rushing success rate and are missing LB2 Dre Greenlaw (achilles). They also allowed the 5th-most receptions to RBs.
Bijan Robinson - 93.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Jahmyr Gibbs - 86.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Lions have the highest team total of the week.
Rams allowed the 5th-highest yards before contact. They also don't have Aaron Donald!
Jonathan Taylor - 91.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Texans allowed the fewest yards before contact and lowest rushing success rate.
Taylor was 7th in RB carries on a read option despite missing the first month; Zack Moss was 2nd. Now he'll get them with a real rushing threat in Anthony Richardson. He should be more efficient this year while coach Shane Steichen spams these runs.
Saquon Barkley - 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Eagles have the 4th-highest team total of the week.
Kyren Williams - 82.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Lions allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs last year, then added DT D.J. Reader and EDGE2 Marcus Davenport this offseason.
Josh Jacobs - 85.5 total yards in Pick'em.
AJ Dillon (stinger) is out for the year, and 3rd-round rookie Marshawn Lloyd (out) is just returning to practice. It could be Emanuel Wilson as his primary backup. That wasn't the plan two weeks ago!
Packers were 5th on inside runs, while the Eagles were 22nd per NFL Pro. New DC Vic Fangio's defense was in a 2-high shell at the 3rd-highest rate on 1st and 2nd downs, leading to the 3rd-most light boxes. He's been willing to get run on.
Packers averaged 2.0 more expected points than the Raiders last year.
De'Von Achane - 74.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Dolphins have the 3rd-highest team total of the week.
Jaguars allowed the most receptions to RBs. With Odell Beckham (PUP) out, the new wrinkle could be more Achane at wide out and in the slot.
Jaguars were 22nd in defending runs outside the tackles per NFL Pro.
Rachaad White - 84.5 total yards in Pick'em.
1st-round C Graham Barton is going to turn around White's rushing efficiency this year. He was the RB13 in usage last year.
Offenses facing the Commanders passed the ball at the 2nd-highest rate, yet the Commanders still allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to RBs because they were awful in both phases. They allowed the 4th-most receptions and 34-year-old Bobby Wagner isn't likely to plug that issue up.
Commanders are my No. 28 defense heading into 2024.
Alvin Kamara - 87.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Panthers were last in rushing EPA allowed and 6th-worst against fantasy RBs.
Panthers are my No. 31 defense heading into 2024.
Travis Etienne - 80.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Dolphins lost star DT Christian Wilkins in free agency and EDGE Bradley Chubb (ACL) is out. EDGE1 Jaelan Phillips (achilles) will play on a snap count most likely, while 1st-round EDGE Chop Robinson wasn't a factor against the run while at Penn State.
Isiah Pacheco - 78.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Chiefs have the 7th-highest team total of the week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out 4 weeks (NFI List, illness), leaving newly-signed Samaje Perine and UDFA Carson Steele as his primary backups.
Pacheco had 68 yards and a score on 24 carries in a grinded out win versus Baltimore in the playoffs, catching all 4 targets for 14 yards.
James Cook - 83.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bills have the 2nd-highest team total of the week and are 6-point home favorites.
It's an eruption spot per the efficiency chart. The Bills were 3rd in designed runs, while the Cardinals were 27th at defending them per NFL Pro.
Cardinals allowed the most fantasy points to RBs and the 2nd-highest rushing success rate. Offenses facing the Cardinals chose to run the ball in neutral situations at the 3rd-highest rate.
Kenneth Walker - 81.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Seahawks have the 8th-highest team total of the week and are 6-point home favorites.
Broncos were last in yards before contact and allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs.
Broncos are my No. 30 defense heading into 2024.
Derrick Henry - 74.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ravens are 2.5-point dogs in Kansas City.
Ravens were 7th in stacked box runs, while the Chiefs were 27th per NFL Pro.
Ravens also had a near season-high 69% neutral pass rate against the Chiefs in their playoff elimination game. That storyline went viral, potentially leading to the Henry signing this offseason. (The real reason why they lost was two fumbles, an interception, and losing the penalty margin by 65 yards.)
Joe Mixon - 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Texans have the 5th-highest team total of the week.
Colts allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to RBs, and offenses facing the Colts chose to run the ball at the 2nd-highest rate.
James Conner - 67.5 total yards in Pick'em.
It's an eruption spot per the efficiency chart (3rd vs. 22nd in rushing EPA).
Cardinals were 2nd in rushing against light boxes and 3rd in stacked boxes.
Bills LB Matt Milano (torn biceps) is out.
Devin Singletary - 63.5 total yards in Pick'em.
He played 29-of-33 snaps with the Giants' 1st-team offense in the preseason, handling both 3rd-and-longs and the goal-line job.
Offenses facing the Vikings passed the ball at the highest rate.
David Montgomery - 64.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Lions have the highest team total of the week.
Rams allowed the 5th-highest yards before contact. They also don't have Aaron Donald!
Raheem Mostert - 56.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Dolphins have the 3rd-highest team total of the week.
Jaguars were 22nd in defending runs outside the tackles per NFL Pro.
Aaron Jones - 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Giants allowed the 2nd-highest rushing yards before contact. They did add EDGE Brian Burns this offseason, however.
Javonte Williams - 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Broncos have the 2nd-lowest team total of the week.
Seahawks were 2nd worst in rushing EPA and 3rd-worst in fantasy points to RBs allowed.
Chuba Hubbard - 71.5 total yards in Pick'em.
RB27 from Week 10 on while being the clear starter.
Panthers have the 4th-lowest team total of the week.
Zack Moss
Bengals have the 5th-highest team total of the week. Game script (-9 spread) favors a more run-heavy projection, potentially favoring Zack Moss.
Patriots were 2nd-best rushing success rate and rushing EPA, and 1st against shotgun runs, which is a Bengals specialty. They were 4th in yards before contact, too. But this year, they are without EDGE Matthew Judon (trade) and DT Christian Barmore (blood clots).
Rhamondre Stevenson - 62.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Patriots have the lowest team total, by far (15.75 points).
Bengals allowed the 4th-highest success rate.
Jerome Ford - 66.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Cowboys allowed the highest rushing success rate.
D'Andre Swift - 62.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bears have the 6th-highest team total of the week.
Titans were 3rd-best in yards before contact last year, then drafted a powerful DT in Round 2 this past draft and traded for a starting LB in August.
Najee Harris - 65.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Steelers have the 5th-lowest team total of the week.
Falcons were 1st in rushing EPA and 1st at defending designed runs per NFL Pro.
Zamir White - 64.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Raiders have the 3rd-lowest team total of the week.
Rico Dowdle
Cowboys only project for 19.5 points this week, the lowest of the year.
Browns are my No. 1 defense heading into 2024.
Tony Pollard
Bears were 4th-best in rushing EPA allowed.
Bears are my No. 5 defense heading into 2024.
Chase Brown - 55.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bengals have the 5th-highest team total of the week. Game script (-9 spread) favors a more run-heavy projection, potentially favoring Zack Moss.
Patriots were 2nd-best rushing success rate and rushing EPA.
Brian Robinson - 56.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Bucs were 3rd-best against fantasy RBs and 5th-best in rushing EPA allowed. The Commanders simply don't have the interior to stop NT Veta Vea and a physical edge group.
Gus Edwards - 54.5 total yards in Pick'em.
J.K. Dobbins
Jaylen Warren
Falcons were 1st in rushing EPA and 1st at defending designed runs per NFL Pro.
Austin Ekeler - 48.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tyjae Spears
Ezekiel Elliott
Jaleel McLaughlin
Ty Chandler
Blake Corum
Zach Charbonnet
Tyler Allgeier
Khalil Herbert
Antonio Gibson
Alexander Mattison
Ray Davis
Trey Benson
Week 1 WR Rankings
Tyreek Hill - 93.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Justin Jefferson - 80.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson (out), Jordan Addison (ankle), and Jalen Nailor (undisclosed) are dealing with injuries.
Giants were 4th-worst against fantasy WRs last year. They will be playing a 2nd-round rookie safety and 3rd-round rookie slot CB, and CB1 Deonte Banks is just a sophomore. Offenses facing the Giants last year passed in neutral situations at the 6th-highest rate, and they are likely worse in the secondary early on.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 86.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Lions have the 2nd-highest team total of the week.
He had a 7-110-0 receiving line versus the Rams in the playoffs. They are starting Christian Roseboom and UDFA rookie Omar Speights at LB after trading Ernest Jones away in training camp. The Rams were top-10 in targets allowed over the middle last year, an area of the field where Amon-Ra was WR2 in targets last year.
CeeDee Lamb - 82.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Browns CB1 Denzel Ward is a dude, but he went into the slot on only 3% of his snaps last year. That said, the Browns were 4th-best against fantasy WRs last year and are my No. 1 defense heading into 2024 after finishing 1st in EPA, success rate, and preventing explosives.
Note the chart above, which broke ties against Lamb this week.
Puka Nacua - 70.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Lions were 3rd-worst against fantasy WRs last year, but they added CB1 Carlton Davis and 1st-round CB2 Terrion Arnold this offseason to get real support there. They already had stud slot CB Brian Branch, so this is a defense that should go from bad to good immediately. Still, this is a shootout on paper.
A.J. Brown - 69.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Eagles have the 5th-highest team total of the week.
The Packers allowed the most targets over the middle last year, an area where OC Kellen Moore features his best WRs and an area where AJB can really take off.
Expect CB1 Jaire Alexander to rotate between Brown and DeVonta Smith because he only moved into the slot on 3% of his snaps last year. We'll see if that holds under a new DC.
Nico Collins - 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Texans have the 4th-highest team total of the week.
Colts were 25th in deep passing defense.
Colts DC Gus Bradley played zone at the highest rate, specifically using Cover 3 at a 55% rate. Collins was top 5 in yards per route against that look. I don't think CB1 JuJu Brents or 7th-rounder Jaylon Jones are ready for Collins' speed and physicality.
Cooper Kupp - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's healthy. It's go time.
Mike Evans - 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Commanders were 2nd-worst against fantasy WRs. They were particularly awful at stopping throws to the perimeter, where Mike Evans obviously eats.
Garrett Wilson - 68.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jets have the 5th-lowest team total of the week.
Jaylen Waddle - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dolphins have the 3rd-highest team total of the week.
Davante Adams - 71.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Raiders have the 3rd-lowest team total of the week.
Chargers were 5th-worst against fantasy WRs last year under a different DC, but the talent remains about the same. Adams had 8-101-1 and 8-75-0 games last year.
Deebo Samuel - 60.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Ja'Marr Chase (Questionable) - 67.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He said he's a game-time decision and is capable of playing 40-50 snaps if he is active, compared to the 60 something snaps he typically plays. There are rust, chemistry, and Burrow wrist issues to also sort out, so to have lower expectations here is warranted. That said, this is Ja'Marr Chase without Tee Higgins (doubtful). You're starting him in re-draft in almost every scenario.
Patriots CB1 Christian Gonzalez had elite reps before his rookie-year ACL tear. He should see some Chase.
Malik Nabers - 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brian Daboll is calling plays again.
Vikings were 6th-worst against fantasy WRs. They have Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin as their top outside CBs this year. I'm not scared.
Drake London - 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Steelers CB1 Joey Porter is physical and an emerging plus coverage corner, especially with Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety behind him.
Rashee Rice - 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chiefs have the 6th-highest team total of the week.
Ravens were one of the best teams defending passes over the middle last year because they have Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith. Add in Marlon Muphrey and this team can really tackle underneath.
Marvin Harrison - 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Olave - 63.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Because games were so uncompetitive, the Panthers were 2nd-best against fantasy WRs last year.
Amari Cooper - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Cowboys are without CB2 Daron Bland and are just getting CB1 Trevon Diggs (ACL) back.
Browns were 4th in neutral pass rate from Week 8 on last year. Their offseason moves over the past few offseasons point to this trend sticking.
DeVonta Smith - 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Eagles have the 5th-highest team total of the week.
Tank Dell - 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Texans have the 4th-highest team total of the week.
DK Metcalf - 58.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Broncos CB1 Patrick Surtain doesn't move into the slot and plays both sides on the perimeter, meaning he could shadow or just see a lot of snaps against Metcalf.
DJ Moore - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
L'Jarius Sneed was brought in to be the CB1 after the Titans were shredded for the 7th-most fantasy points to WRs.
Stefon Diggs - 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Texans have the 4th-highest team total of the week.
Michael Pittman - 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
I've placed a lower on his receiving yards.
Texans CB1 Derek Stingley looks like a top-3 CB now, and they have maybe the best 1-2 edge rusher duo in the NFL now. They are a top-8 defense to me.
Terry McLaurin - 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Bucs lost CB1 Carlton Davis in free agency.
Xavier Worthy - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
I've placed a higher on his receiving yards.
Chiefs have the 6th-highest team total of the week.
Hollywood Brown is out, likely giving Worthy a near full-time role.
1st-round CB Nate Wiggins will see some Worthy.
Christian Kirk - 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He'll largely avoid Jalen Ramsey (questionable) while being in the slot.
Chris Godwin - 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Commanders were 2nd-worst against fantasy WRs.
Brandon Aiyuk - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The hold in has caused some early-season declines for star players. He could be on a snap count in the opener.
Jets CB1 Sauce Gardner will face him on the perimeter more than Deebo Samuel, and DC Robert Salah also knows what makes Kyle Shanahan tick. The Jets allowed just 16.8 half PPR points to WRs last year. The next best defense, 22.1. Unbelievable.
George Pickens - 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Steelers have the 6th-lowest team total of the week.
Falcons CB A.J. Terrell (with safeties Jesse Bates and Justin Simmons) is definitely no joke, but it surprised me that Atlanta was 30th against deep passes per NFL Pro.
Zay Flowers - 52.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chiefs are without CB L'Jarius Sneed, but Trent McDuffie is fantastic and can play inside or out. There's a chance he follows Flowers around a bit here. With both available last year, the Chiefs were 3rd-best against fantasy WRs.
Joshua Palmer - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Home game against a mediocre Raiders secondary.
D.J. Chark to IR.
Calvin Ridley - 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Bears CB1 Jaylon Johnson, S Jaquon Birkser, S Kevin Byard, CB2 Tyrique Stevenson, and LB Tremaine Edmonds is not to be messed with, especially if the Titans RT can't block Montez Sweat.
Diontae Johnson - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Panthers have the 4th-lowest team total of the week.
Saints allowed the fewest EPA on outside throws over 5 air yards last year.
Keenan Allen - 47.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
I can't believe that heel injury from last year is still putting him on the injury report.
Brian Thomas - 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
His rookie debut features snaps against CB Jalen Ramsey (questionable). Welcome to the NFL. If he beats him right away, it's time to fully party.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett being on the injury report helps, as does CB1 Patrick Surtain being occupied with DK Metcalf. Great spot for JSN.
Courtland Sutton - 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Bronocs have the 2nd-lowest team total of the week, but they are also 6-point dogs and may be forced into more pass attempts.
Jayden Reed - 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Only played 62% of the 1st-team snaps this preseason and scrimmage.
Should see some 1st-round rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell.
Ladd McConkey
2-WR set snaps seem more likely with DJ Chark out.
Andrei Iosivas
This assumes Ja'Marr Chase is playing at a little less than his usual snaps and Tee Higgins is completely out. Iosivas was a star in camp while only working with the 1st-team offense as the primary slot receiver. He has the size and athleticism to also play on the perimeter if needed. A full-time player attached to Joe Burrow is worth flex consideration. He's a must add going into this game as someone I flagged as a potential "This Year's Puka Nacua" (which of course there won't be).
Jameson Williams - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Lions have the 2nd-highest team total of the week.
Curtis Samuel
The Bills have the 2nd-highest team total of the week.
He practiced in full on Wednesday after battling turf toe in camp.
This an erruption spot per the efficiency chart.
DeAndre Hopkins - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports, "how much he plays is uncertain and could come down to pain management."
Bears CB1 Jaylon Johnson, S Jaquon Birkser, S Kevin Byard, CB2 Tyrique Stevenson, and LB Tremaine Edmonds is not to be messed with, especially if the Titans RT can't block Montez Sweat.
Christian Watson - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Only played 72% of the 1st-team snaps this preseason and scrimmage.
Rome Odunze - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Romeo Doubs - 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Khalil Shakir
The Bills have the 2nd-highest team total of the week.
Keon Coleman
The Bills have the 2nd-highest team total of the week.
Jordan Addison - 46.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
He's returning from a training camp ankle sprain (questionable).
Rashid Shaheed - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett
Adonai Mitchell
Brandin Cooks
Gabe Davis - 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jerry Jeudy - 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Cowboys are without CB2 Daron Bland (IR) and are just getting CB1 Trevon Diggs (ACL) back. Expect Jeudy to largely dodge both as the primary slot receiver.
Mike Williams
Could be on a snap count (ACL) like Breece Hall was in Week 1 last year, but he has practiced for 2 weeks now.
Jakobi Meyers - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Adam Thielen - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darnell Mooney - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Reynolds - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Demarcus Robinson - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dontayvion Wicks - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Only played 24% of the 1st-team snaps this preseason and scrimmage.
Michael Wilson - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Greg Dortch - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kalif Raymond - 21.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Rashod Bateman - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Demario Douglas - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jalen Tolbert
Marvin Mims
Jalen McMillan
Van Jefferson
Wan'Dale Robinson - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Week 1 QB Rankings
Josh Allen - Bills (27.25) vs. ARI
Bills have the 2nd-highest team total of the week.
Cardinals were 4th-worst against fantasy QBs, and they might be worse this year because their offense can actually keep up.
Jalen Hurts - Eagles (25.5) vs. GB in Brazil
Very curious to see the Hurts, C Cam Jurgens, and OC Kellen Moore connection, especially against the blitz and in the red zone.
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (25.0) vs. BAL
Chiefs have 27+ points and Mahomes has 343+ passing yards in his 4 regular season games against the Ravens. That dropped to 17 points and 241 passing yards in their playoff win earlier this calendar year. In comes Xavier Worthy and potentially better OT play.
Ravens were 3rd-best against fantasy QBs.
C.J. Stroud - Texans (25.75) at IND
Texans have the 4th-highest team total of the week.
As a rookie, Stroud had the highest explosive play rate (28%) against Cover 2, Cover 3, and Cover 4 defenses (the primary zone coverages). Those are what Colts DC Gus Bradley deploys.
Anthony Richardson - Colts (22.75) vs. HOU
Texans adding EDGE Danielle Hunter (16.5 sacks) and some depth this free agency, while already having young stars EDGE Will Anderson, CB1 Derek Stingley, and FS Jalen Pitre makes this one of the most underrated defenses. But the Texans offense just might put it on the Colts defense. There should be plenty of play volume for Richardson.
Lamar Jackson - Ravens (22.0) at KC
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins (26.25) vs. JAX
Dolphins have the 3rd-highest team total of the week.
Caleb Williams - Bears (24.5) vs. TEN
Bears have the 8th-highest team total of the week, but Williams is expected to run more than most in this tier.
Don't copy/paste the Titans' defensive stats from last year after they added CB1 L'Jadrius Sneed, CB2 Chidobe Awuzie, and S Quandre Diggs this offseason.
Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars (22.75) at MIA
Jaelan Phillips (achilles) and Jalen Ramsey (hamstring) didn't practice Wednesday.
Dolphins lost DT Christian Wilkins, EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel, and CB Xavier Worthy in free agency, plus DC Vic Fangio. Lots of changes here.
Kyler Murray - Cardinals (20.75) at BUF
Jared Goff - Lions (28.0) vs. LAR
Lions have the highest team total of the week.
Matthew Stafford - Rams (24.5) at DET
Lions were 3rd-worst against fantasy QBs, explaining the additions of CB1 Carlton Davis and 1st-round rookie CB2 Terrion Arnold this offseason.
Stafford had 367 yards and two TDs on 25-of-36 throws against the Lions in a narrow playoff loss earlier this calendar year.
Joe Burrow - Bengals (24.25) vs. NE
I can't wait to (over) react to Burrow's arm strength coming off a rare wrist surgery on Stats vs. Film.
The Patriots lost EDGE Matthew Judon and DT Christian Barmone (NFI List), but they will play a slow-paced offense and are still really versatile with younger talent on defense. This isn't a fantastic matchup for passing numbers generally, even as big favorites.
Jordan Love - Packers (23.5) vs. PHI
Eagles made multiple pass-defense additions this offseason, but they were 2nd-worst against fantasy QBs last year. DC Vic Fangio's 2-high shell will force underneath throws and runs more than most.
Jayden Daniels - Commanders (19.5) at TB
Rookie QBs against Bucs' Todd Bowles have a 41% passing success rate, which would've been the No. 28 offense last year. They're 5-10 as a team.
They blitzed at the 3rd-highest rate last year.
Geno Smith - Seahawks (24.0) vs. DEN
Deshaun Watson - Browns (21.75) vs. DAL
Browns passed the ball at the 4th-highest rate from Week 8 on.
The Cowboys are without CB2 Daron Bland and are just getting CB1 Trevon Diggs (ACL) back.
Justin Fields - Steelers (19.0) vs. ATL
Initial game plan for the week was built for Russ, and Arthur Smith is going to be more RB focused in the ground game than Fields had with the Bears. He also looked awful in a new system this preseason. It's a lot to figure out against a star-filled Falcons defense and behind an inexperienced offensive line.
Brock Purdy - 49ers (24.25) vs. NYJ
Jets were 2nd-best against fantasy QBs because they have a great defense and slow-paced offense. Perhaps LT Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk are a bit rusty after training camp hold outs.
Jets EDGE Haason Reddick (contract) is out.
Dak Prescott - Cowboys (19.25) at CLE
On the road against the best pass defense is a tough start.
Sam Darnold - Vikings (21.25) at NYG
Daniel Jones - Giants (19.75) vs. MIN
Offenses facing the Vikings passed the ball at the highest rate last season because the Vikings are savages at putting defenders on the line of scrimmage.
Justin Herbert - Chargers (21.5) vs. LV
Baker Mayfield - Buccaneers (23.5) vs. WAS
The Commanders allowed the most FPs to QBs last year, including a league-high 39 TDs and 4,627 passing yards. Their secondary remains iffy.
Offenses facing the Commanders also chose to pass at the 2nd-highest rate.
Kirk Cousins - Falcons (22.75) vs. PIT
Left off the injury report leading into his return from a torn achilles.
Derek Carr - Saints (23.0) vs. CAR
Aaron Rodgers - Jets (19.75) at SF
Will Levis - Titans (20.5) at CHI
Bo Nix - Broncos (18.0) at SEA
Bryce Young - Panthers (18.5) at NO
Gardner Minshew - Raiders (18.5) at LAC
Jacoby Brissett - Patriots (15.5) at CIN
Week 1 TE Rankings
Travis Kelce - 12.35 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Yes, LB Roquan Smith and SS Kyle Hamilton are them, but Kelce did have 11-116-1 on 11 targets against them in the playoffs this calendar year.
He should be freshest right now, and there's no Hollywood Brown.
Sam LaPorta - 10.45 fantasy points in Pick'em.
The Lions have the highest team total of the week.
The Rams allowed the 4th-most FPs to TEs last year and just traded away their productive LB at the end of training camp.
Dalton Kincaid - 10.25 fantasy points in Pick'em.
The Bills have the 2nd-highest team total of the week.
Cardinals were 2nd-worst in EPA per throw to TEs beyond the line of scrimmage.
Trey McBride - 9.85 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Bills LB Matt Milano (torn biceps) is out. He's a TE stopper. This is from NFL Pro.
Mark Andrews - 9.35 fantasy points in Pick'em.
David Njoku - 9.35 fantasy points in Pick'em.
He was the TE1 overall from Week 8 through the playoffs. The Browns use their TEs a lot, especially Njoku in the screen game because he's an athletic freak.
Evan Engram - 9.35 fantasy points in Pick'em.
It's best to chase underneath volume hogs while 3.5-point dogs.
Kyle Pitts (Questionable) - 8.45 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Limited with a hamstring injury on Wednesday. He said he's fine.
George Kittle - 8.55 fantasy points in Pick'em.
He averaged 6.8 expected points with Aiyuk and Deebo both in the lineup last year.
Jets LB duo, C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams, is damn good.
Jake Ferguson - 8.35 fantasy points in Pick'em.
The Browns allowed the 2nd-fewest FPs and fewest yards per game (32.9) to TEs last year, partially because of rangy LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
Dallas Goedert - 8.15 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Taysom Hill - 6.65 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz - 7.45 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Pat Freiermuth - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Falcons allowed the 5th-most FPs to TEs last year. They're likely to play a lot of 2-high shells with new coach Raheem Morris (from Rams), especially with their two rangy safeties. Those coverages typically are softer underneath than deep. That's where Freiermuth runs his routes.
Brock Bowers - 6.45 fantasy points in Pick'em.
He'll likely be better in December than September, especially while coming off a training camp injury.
Noah Fant
The Broncos allowed the most FPs to TEs last year.
Luke Musgrave - 26.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Conklin - 6.45 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Colby Parkinson - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Hunter Henry - 27.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Patriots have the lowest team total, by far.
The Bengals allowed the 3rd-most FPs to TEs on the most receptions last year.
Juwan Johnson - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cole Kmet - 22.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
The Titans allowed the 3rd-fewest FPs to TEs last year.
Cade Otton - 6.55 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Listed as the backup FB on the depth chart.
Chig Okonkwo - 6.65 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Isaiah Likely - 15.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Week 1 DEF Rankings (For Sickos)
First off, the data is using last year's sack totals, which could be totally different if there's a new QB, OC, OL, or a combination of them. But they are generally fine to use as a baseline. Here are the six matchups that stand out:
Bengals vs. NE: Simply attachking the fewest points of the week (15.75). Cincy got safety help for DC Lou Anaruomo this offseason, and Patriots are essentially running tryouts at OL and WR.
Bears vs. TEN: My 5th defense because of a loaded secondary versus new OC and a potential dinged up DeAndre Hopkins. Will Levis has some panic traits that lead to INTs.
Vikings vs. NYG: Daniel Jones versus a chaotic Brian Flores defense that blitzed at a 52% clip last year. There is INT and sack potential there.
Seahawks vs. DEN: Scheme-diverse coach Mike MacDonald versus a rookie QB with mediocre weapons.
Buccaneers vs. WAS: Blitz-heavy Todd Bowles versus a rookie QB who didn't handle pressure the best in college with a bad OL.
Falcons vs. PIT: Matthew Judon, AJ Terrell, and two dynamic safeties versus an olé OL, a QB in a new system, and a lackluster receiver room.