The most important round in fantasy football is Round 1, followed by Round 2, Round 3, etc. So instead of spreading myself then and ranking the top-250 players, this weekend's project was simply ranking the top 30 players with as much detail as needed. These don't bake in average draft position at all and are instead my "truth serum" 2025 fantasy football rankings for half PPR best ball.

1. WR1 Ja'Marr Chase (ADP: 1.1): This chart shows that 51% of Underdog Fantasy teams with Ja'Marr Chase finished in 1st or 2nd place during the regular season. Insane.

2. WR2 CeeDee Lamb (ADP: 4.8): Over the past two seasons, Lamb is the WR1 overall in half PPR points per game, including the games that Dak Prescott missed. He's an elite WR in a role made for fantasy, and there's nothing about the George Pickens profile that should have us concerned, as he's a chain mover while not being a volume hog. The Cowboys' coaching change leaves some questions in regards to their pass-heaviness, but new HC Brian Schottenheimer has been the Dallas OC during these two seasons and is probably looking at his best skill players being pass-related and building towards that. A December schedule chalk with shoot-out dome matchups (@DET, vs. MIN, vs. LAC, and @WAS) is the cherry on top.

3. RB1 Saquon Barkley (ADP: 3.4): Last year's co-MVP in fantasy football has nothing in his profile to cause concern, other than that he's coming off 482 touches including the Eagles' Super Bowl run. That's the 2nd-most since 2000, and the backs who see that many typically fall off a bit the next year. To put numbers on that: Since 2000, there have been 47 RBs to have 400+ touches and play the next season. The median outcome for the following season is 311 regular season touches, which is like 13 healthy games or so based on his per-game usage. This lowers his floor, but Saquon finished with the most half PPR fantasy points over replacement at any position last year and nothing really changed in Philly.

4. WR3 Puka Nacua (ADP: 7.7): He's averaging 98 YPG in the games he played more than 75% snaps, and he led the NFL in yards per route (3.23) as a sophomore despite battling injuries. That's insane. Nacua is Gen Z's Larry Fitzgerald, meaning he can do it all. That's 2.2 targets behind the line of scrimmage and 7.7 beyond it. He's become Sean McVay's 2nd-most important player out of nowhere, and I don't see that changing with Davante Adams in-house. In fact, Nacua is likely to play more slot, get moved around more, and see better coverages with the veteran operating the more-difficult X-receiver spot. Assuming his body can survive the huge hits he takes (and creates), Nacua is just positive touchdown variance away from a special season. There's no way his career 3.3% touchdown rate continues.

5. RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP: 5.9): Only Saquon and Derrick Henry averaged more half PPR points per game last year (18.3), and there are multiple ways he can take another leap. David Montgomery could no longer be the "starter" and handle a 50/50 split of goal-line touches, or D-Mont could just miss significant time. In either scenario, Gibbs has 1st overall player in fantasy easily within his range of outcomes. The flip side with this path is that he was the RB3 per game last year when the Lions scored 49 more points than the 2nd-best team in the NFL last year. That very likely doesn't hold this year, so Gibbs must get a bigger piece of the pie in 2025. I'll take those odds.

6. WR4 Justin Jefferson (ADP: 2.7): The NFL's all-time leader in receiving yards per game (95.6) sits much lower than I'd like, but the projections and my thinking line up a ranking this "low". Jefferson "only" averaged 90 YPG last year while facing more target competition than ever, and it's unlikely that "rookie" J.J. McCarthy can match the total production Sam Darnold produced last season. McCarthy ran a tailored offense at Michigan, and the Vikings revamped their OL and re-signed their blocking TE in an attempt to be more balanced on offense. If there's a WR to overcome an offense projected for the 21st-most points while having two stud pass catchers to compete with, it's Jefferson.

7. RB3 Christian McCaffrey (ADP: 8.1): Since his 2018 breakout, CMC is the owner of the 1st, 3rd, 12th, and 18th spots in single-season half PPR points among all RBs, WRs, and TEs. His bankability of elite fantasy production is unrivaled when he's on the field, and the 29-year-old was out there practicing all offseason coming off a season where he only handled 65 touches. We have 10 seasons of a RB averaging more than 18.3 half PPR points at his age or older since 2000, so it's certainly possible he bounces all the way back towards fantasy greatness. If you only play in one league and don't want the risk, I get it. If you're firing up more than a couple and aren't scared to compete, let's get aggressive for as long as he survives training camp healthy. 90% of teams are going to lose anyways.

8. RB4 De'Von Achane (ADP: 17.1): He's been a fantasy RB1 in back-to-back years to start his career, but they couldn't have happened in more different ways. Achane's rookie season was a home run derby (7.8 YPC), featuring scores from 10, 10, 25, 67, and 76 yards out. Last year, his rushing efficiency predictably dipped (4.5 YPC), but Achane had the receiving triple crown (78-592-6) among RBs. If we only took the 11 healthy Tua Tagovailoa games, Achane quietly averaged 19.3 half PPR points per game, which would've only trailed Saquon last year. Hopefully Tua can stay upright and the three new starters on the OL (LT Patrick Paul, LG James Daniels, and RG Jonah Savaiinaea) can gel because Achane has the potential to be the RB1 overall finisher if things break his way. On top of this, the Jonnu Smith trade opens up 20% target share (mostly underneath where Achane feasts) and the Jalen Ramsey trade puts the Dolphins in consideration for the very worst CB group in the NFL. What a win.

9. RB5 Bijan Robinson (ADP: 3.7): There was a year two leap last year in one key metric: goal-line carries. Bijan handled 70% of the Falcons' inside the 5-yard line opportunities, which is the 8th-highest rate in the NFL. He also caught 61 passes and averaged 4.8 YPC. It's hard to find spots where he can improve his fantasy stock from last year when he was the RB4 in half PPR points per game (17.6). To truly break into that next tier, the Falcons have to simply be a better offense. We'll see if Michael Penix with a new center can make that happen. Historically, Bijan is in great shape either way. He had the 12th-best age-22 RB season ever per half PPR points per game, and the top 20 in this metric averaged 17.5 half PPR points the following year.

10. WR5 Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP: 11.2): That's back-to-back WR4-overall per-game finishes in half PPR scoring, and the Sun God has done so in two different ways. In 2023, Amon-Ra caught 7.4 passes for 94 YPG on 10.0 targets per game. Incredible volume. In 2024, he only had 8.3 targets per game but his TD rate spiked to a largely unsustainable 8.5% on way to the Lions' league-leading scoring. With regression coming with a worse OL and worse OC, Amon-Ra is likely headed closer to those 2023 numbers. Either way works for us.

11. WR6 Malik Nabers (ADP: 9.0): He was half PPR's WR7 per-game as a rookie in the No. 31 scoring offense. The Giants made three upgrades at QB over what they had last year, are hopeful to get more than 6 games out of Pro Bowl LT Andrew Thomas, and didn't make notable changes to Nabers' target competition. After watching his film, it's clear Nabers has all the physical tools to be one of the NFL's best, and it's also clear that there is more room for growth (vs. zone and on a more variety of intermediate routes). It's easy to see Nabers connecting on more than 46% of his targets beyond 10 air yards with Russell Wilson's finishing 2nd in PFF Grade on throws beyond 10 air yards last year (only behind Lamar Jackson).

12. WR7 Nico Collins (ADP: 11.4): Including the NFL Playoffs, Collins averaged 94 YPG on 9.1 targets in his 11 healthy games. He's morphed into the ideal X-receiver in two short years, where the Texans can connect on 50-yard bombs over the top or hammer him underneath to let his YAC skills take over. If Houston's overhauled OL can gel quicker than expected or if new OC Nick Haley can fix the worse unblocked pressure rate I've ever seen, then C.J. Stroud and Collins should light up the box score again. The fact that he's ranked at just 12th overall shows how deep the 1st round is in fantasy this year.

13. WR8 Brian Thomas Jr. (ADP: 13.1): The only WR to average more half PPR points from Week 12 on last year was Ja'Marr Chase, and he did so with Mac Jones at QB and Doug Pederson at HC. BTJ has the physical traits to be one of the best WRs in the NFL if he continues his development (primarily just finding the weak spots in zone defense). He's too big and fast for CBs to contain him vertically, and the Jaguars deployed him underneath late in the year to great success. The latter is where new HC Liam Coen was so good at during his stint with the Bucs, and if Travis Hunter is limited to just 66-80% snaps on offense, then there's nothing stopping the 23-year-old from solidifying himself as an annual Round 1 candidate. He was already the WR6 overall in yards per route as an early-declare rookie.

14. RB6 Derrick Henry (ADP: 14.2): The Big Dog is giving the Age Cliff a full-blown beat down. Henry was half PPR's RB2 last year, on a career-best 6.1 yards per touch. Turns out, putting a Hall Of Fame RB in the same backfield as Lamar Jackson is going to work. Nothing about the Ravens offense has changed, aside from naturally regression putting the Ravens touchdown expectation this season 6-8 touchdowns short of last year's elite season. If he holds his 95% share of team carries inside the 5-yard line from last year, then how does he fail in this offense? I'm not sure. He was the 3rd overall player in half PPR points over replacement last year, so this ADP and ranking have a bunch of regression and age concerns priced in to some degree.

15. WR9 Tyreek Hill (ADP: 27.8): Admittedly, I was completely out on Hill to begin this offseason. Vibes were awful. Since then, Hill has at least stayed out of trouble and been in the building, he's running 10.10 100m dashes for fun, and the Dolphins made a huge move to boost Hill's projected targets. In Weeks 8-16, Hill's target share dipped to 20% while Jonnu nearly matched him 1-to-1. That's no longer a threat, and when this offense is condensed, Hill has been an elite WR1. The complete downside risk remains--older player who dipped and has off-field chaos constantly, while also being at the mercy of an oft-injured QB--but the upside case is so obvious, and I'm taking this trade as an indication that they feel better about Tyreek than they did a few months ago. Can I say "I love him in best ball" again?

He's the WR3 overall in this "upside" metric:

16. WR10 Drake London (ADP: 15.0): The final 8 games of the year were London's full breakout. He averaged 11.0 targets and 90 YPG, including 13.0 targets and 117 YPG in those 3 Michael Penix starts. I'd be skeptical in carrying that small sample into this year, as the Falcons were 2-6 over this stretch on a -39 point differential (which explains the increased targets). But at the same time, London is an all-around stud. His catch radius is among the best in the NFL, and he cooked in the slot with great short-area route running. The coaching staff saw the same thing and granted him with a career-high 39% slot rate after being at 24% over his first two years. If Penix has the Jay Cutler or Jameis Winston play style that he showed in college and a rookie, then we could see some wild games from Atlanta this year.

17. WR11 A.J. Brown (ADP: 16.6): Last year was a bust for no reason other than the Eagles' defense and rushing offense were too dominant. After AJB return in Week 6, those units were 1st and 1st in EPA per play, leading to consistent huge leads and the 29th-most passing yards on the lowest pass attempts in the NFL. Brown himself was the WR36 in expected half PPR points and would've been lower in Full PPR. If that happens again, there's pretty much no way Brown can be a fantasy WR1 over the course of the season. But if there are metrics that can regress year-to-year, they are usually on defense and on the ground. Brown was the WR3 overall in yards per route still. Here's to hoping Jalen Hurts doesn't complete just 47 passes while trailing over 14 games again.

18. WR12 Tee Higgins (ADP: 23.9): Last year's Bengals had a 63% neutral pass rate. The next closest? 57%. And tht doesn't include a chunk of the plays where Cincy was trailing because their awful defense. Long story short, there's more than room for two here with Joe Burrow on this 53-man roster. Higgins was the WR4 overall in expected half PPR points, and we know Higgins is an above-average receiver in all efficiency metrics. The floor is really high at this point, and Higgins has something that nobody at this turn has in Round 2: contingent-based upside. Where would you draft Higgins if Ja'Marr Chase missed a bunch of time? Top 10 overall.

19. WR13 Ladd McConkey (ADP: 18.3): Including that crazy Wild Card game, McConkey was NFL's WR4 overall in yards per route despite being an early 2nd-round rookie. His film was exceptional, too. He doesn't get the credit he deserves for causing CB panic attacks in man coverage, and McConkey's awareness and YAC ability against zone is equally great. He was the best rookie WR on film and per-route last year. He has some Antonio Brown abilities if I may. Perhaps the most underrated part of his profile is the Chargers quietly reaching the top-10 in neutral pass rate last year, even with notorious OC Greg Roman calling plays. They knew what they had with Justin Herbert and McConkey, and they leaned into it. Over his final 11 games, the rookie averaged 98 YPG on 7.9 targets. That will come down some with two new RBs in the mix, but McConkey needs to be treated with respect. Those responding to my tweet here weren't. Their loss.

20. RB7 Josh Jacobs (ADP: 24.8): After "he's washed" allegations, Jacobs revitalized his career in a much-better environment with the Packers last year. He was half PPR's RB6 per-game on RB8 usage, averaging a cool 18.1 half PPR points over his 14 healthy games with Jordan Love. That's more than Bijan, Taylor, and Achane for what it's worth. I don't see any reason to change the expectation this year, aside from Marshawn Lloyd potentially getting it together in his 2nd season. But why would Green Bay go away from NextGenStat's RB3 in rush yards over expected rate? The fantasy community needs to answer that for me.

21. RB8 Jonathan Taylor (ADP: 20.9): Was his 2024 the quietest 102.2 rushing YPG season in recent memory? It makes some sense given his career lows in receiving (18-136-1), but whew did he take off down the stretch. Taylor averaged 30.2 opportunities after the calendar turned to December, which only a few RBs across the league can realistically see over a month's stretch. In fact, JT had the 2nd-most expected half PPR points per game based on his usage over the course of the year, leading to a RB5 overall per-game finish. It's possible his receiving slightly ticks up if Daniel Jones starts most of the season, but at the same time, he doesn't have to go nuts there if he can stay healthy on this humongous rushing volume.

22. RB9 Ashton Jeanty (ADP: 10.9): If we're slightly concerned with the insane volume from Saquon and Henry last year, then we need to carry that over to Jeanty (397 touches), who also had to go through the tiring pre-draft process during the offseason. Jeanty was the best rushing prospect since Saquon Barkely to me, however, so we're expecting greatness right away. He'll have to overcome a slightly below-average OL (20th in run block grade) and Vegas' projected 27th-ranked scoring offense to live up to his 1st-round fantasy ADP, but that's within his range based on everything about his prospect profile, the lack of depth in the Raiders' backfield, the underrated nature of Geno Smith, and the addition of OC Chip Kelly.

23. TE1 Brock Bowers (ADP: 18.4): This was easily the best rookie TE season of all time. Bowers had 26 more receptions and 118 more yards than the all-time rookie TE2 seasons, so there's no need to debate how good he is. It's all just the environment to break down now. The Raiders were 4th in completions and 13th in receiving yards last year because they were always trailing and had check-down QBs, so I don't want to double count the Geno Smith upgrade at QB, as the Raiders will pass less-often and more downfield with Geno at QB and Chip Kelly at OC. In other words, it'll be difficult for Bowers to average 9.0 targets per game, but I can see more than 5 TDs and a 7.8 yards per target this year.

24. TE2 Trey McBride (ADP: 25.7): After coming back from a minor injury in Week 4, McBride averaged 79 YPG on 9.7 targets per game... and nothing has really changed around him. It's the same QB, HC, OC, OL, and target competition, and that 13-game stint that I just referenced was during a very sustainable 7-6 record from the Cardinals. Perhaps Marvin Harrison takes such a big year two leap that McBride is impacted, but he's a simply more creative YAC player who should still dominate targets underneath. To me, it's more likely that McBride's volume stays relatively the same but his touchdowns positively regress. Nobody ran worse with scores last year (2 receiving touchdowns versus 9.0 expected receiving touchdowns).

25. WR14 Rashee Rice (ADP: 21.9): He's played 14 healthy games since his Post-Bye Rookie Bump. Rice is averaging 6.9 receptions and 79 yards on 8.8 targets. If that holds, he's a Round 2 asset. If his 3-game sample last year holds (8.0-96 on 9.7 targets), he's a Round 1 asset. There are three interesting potential downsides, however. His knee injury could slow him down a bit, though he's been practicing in the Chiefs' offseason program. His off-field stuff could cause a 4ish game suspension at any time, though there's no trial date set yet. Perhaps more concerning than those are Xavier Worthy's presence as potential underneath target competition, as the rookie had 3.5 touches behind the line of scrimmage per game during his own Post-Bye Rookie Bump. For comparison, Rice averaged 3.1 touches behind the line of scrimmage per game during his Post-Bye Rookie Bump. He needs those free touches to pay off here.

26. QB1 Lamar Jackson (ADP: 36.2): In last year's MVP-caliber campaign, Lamar finished with 8.2 more fantasy points per game than the QB12. The QB1 overall's average points over replacement in previous seasons were 5.6, 8.5, 5.6, and 6.9, so what Lamar accomplished last year was special stuff. In fact, 30% of teams with Lamar last year came in 1st or 2nd place during the regular season, when the baseline for that metric is only 16.7%. The three primary reasons for his explosive season were 1) OC Todd Monken calling a better-schemed and more pass-heavy game plan in his first year calling plays, 2) the addition of Derrick Henry open throwing lanes, and 3) Lamar just getting more comfortable within the pocket. Nothing's changed off that, so I'll take this full round discount from last year's 24th overall per-game finish. He's at the very top of his game right now and has the momentary QB crown until Mahomes brings the deep ball back in my opinion.

27. QB2 Josh Allen (ADP: 34.2): The Bills project for the most points in the NFL per the betting markets, and Allen's 37% share of inside the 5-yard line carries means he's soaking up a huge chunk of that offense's fantasy points. He finished as the QB2 and 30th overall player last year. The 29-year-old still has his body under him, while his football brain is entering it's prime. This should be a near repeat of his MVP season, especially because the Bills' entire OL returns. If you want to play it safe in a mediocre Round 3, then go elite QB. And that doesn't mean he doesn't have a ceiling, as Allen's Week 14 game last year was the 13th best half PPR performance since 1962, regardless of position.

28. RB10 Bucky Irving (ADP: 21.3): There are Day 3 success stories at RB that can find enough volume to matter right away, but rarely do they actually play like some of the best backs in the league right away. Among all RBs with more than 125 carries, Irving's 3.9 yards after contact was the RB1 overall. He runs hard for his size and is a loose athlete in space, which he was afforded plenty of behind one of the best (and entirely returning) OL's in the league. Those traits led to averaging 18.4 half PPR points over his final 8 games on a crazy-high 5.7 YPC. The Bucs under OC Liam Coen were a machine in the designed pass game, where Irving caught 50-of-53 targets including 25 screens. Sometimes these rookie-year success stories from smaller backs (199 pounds) result in a rug pull the following year, but Irving did look like someone who will matter for awhile. Hopefully the loss of Coen doesn't hurt all that much, though only the Lions are projected for a bigger drop in points than the Bucs according to the betting markets.

29. WR15 Davante Adams (ADP: 30.0): The 32-year-old still can play the guitar. He's averaged over 2.0 yards per route in back-to-back seasons and closed last year as the WR14 overall in yards per route from Week 10. Adams' play-style, which is predicated on route running, smarts, and physicality a lot more than it is on speed, should age gracefully. The fit with the Rams is excellent, as they were 10th in neutral pass rate last year and project for the 10th-most points this year per the betting markets. His baseline is fantasy WR2 production behind Puka Nacua--Adams was the WR8 on WR2 usage during his Jets stint next to Garrett Wilson--but if Nacua misses any time or if Matthew Stafford re-enters MVP talks behind a healthier OL, then Adams can sneak back into WR1 territory once again. Nothing about last year's numbers or tape suggest otherwise. It's just the math of the looming age cliff holding him back from an even more aggressive ranking.

30. RB11 Chase Brown (ADP: 27.8): Zack Moss's season-ending neck injury in Week 8 sent Brown to the moon, though he was headed at least towards the atmosphere in the weeks leading up to that. He averaged 14.3 touches per game in Weeks 6-8 with Moss, then 23.6 touches for the rest of the season. The 18.3 half PPR points over that stretch was equivalent to RB5 per-game numbers, only behind Saquon, Bijan, Gibbs, and Jacobs. Cincy probably doesn't want to expose him to that many touches and snaps (85%) again, but there's only cut-candidate Moss ($1.75M guaranteed), Samaje Perine ($400k guaranteed), and Tahj Brooks (6th-rounder) to compete with. A slightly lower role is somewhat baked into this price, but he can't lose more than 5 touches per game. Perine stealing any passing down work or Moss stealing any goal line work are the primary threats (but aren't that threatening).

Consensus top-36 players I didn't include: Breece Hall, Marvin Harrison Jr., Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kyren Williams, and Mike Evans.