We're one week away. I wanted to get one out before the last minute news tries to get me off the scent.
If he's willing to list Treylon Burks as one of the best WRs in the NFL while live streaming, then we can all but lock Ward into playing for the Titans. A lie that bold shows his loyalty to the organization.
Your boiiiii had this back at +600. I'd be stunned if it's not him now... Cleveland needs some good vibes and fire on offense. Hunter brings both, while also giving the Browns depth at corner in certain packages. Browns GM Andrew Berry said he'd be a receiver "first", which plays into Hunter wanting to play both sides of the ball. His upside with better route running and a more diverse route tree is immense, and if he can also play some corner, then he instantly becomes one of the most valuable non-QBs in the NFL versus his contract. I see Berry and HC Kevin Stefanski being obsessed with finding offensive firepower rather than continuing to invest into a defense that's already been good but hasn't led them to any meaningful playoff wins.
The drop off in talent from Carter to anyone else in the draft is pretty obvious. Even though the Giants already have Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, Carter is the player that best helps them win games in 2025 and beyond, as edge rusher is a position that can be rotated or presented with three on the field at once. The potential for a QB like Shedeur Sanders to fall into the 2nd round is there, too, so they can potentially have their cake and eat it too.
There isn't a great option, nor is there a consensus on who the best player available is. Nevertheless. New England spent their free agency overhauling their defense, finding one answer at WR, and one answer at RT. They can still use more at WR and OL. Tetairoa McMillan is an option but doesn't get the consensus love this high up in the draft, so it's largely down to these linemen: LT/LG Will Campbell (7th in consensus), RT Armand Membou (8th), and LT Kelvin Banks (17th). Only Banks has the LT experience and the arm length, but he's ranked the lowest. Membou has length and is highly regarded but would need to switch sides like Titans 1st-round OT JC Latham, who immediately switched back to RT this offseason. That brings me back to Campbell, who has below-average arms but a bunch of LT starts against elite competition. If it fails, he could play guard, which is still a New England need.
Fixing the interior OL was a priority in free agency--C Robert Hainsley replaces retired Mitch Morse and OG Patrick Mekari replaces Brandon Scherff--but defensive tackle remains a relative weakness. Graham doesn't look the part of a top-5 overall DT, which could result in a mini slide. The Jaguars might have more faith after seeing what undersized DT Braden Fiske did as a rookie with the Rams, where new GM James Gladstone came from. Graham is also 3rd in the consensus rankings I track.
The Raiders have had OL Will Campbell, DT Mason Graham, EDGE Jalon Walker, CB Will Johnson, RB Ashton Jeanty, and WR Tetairoa McMillan in for official visits. Let's break down their odds. Campbell: The Raiders are set at LT, and I don't think the Raiders would move him to RT over their 2024 3rd-rounder, nor would they draft a guard at 6th overall. He's also been drafted ahead in this mock. Graham: They have plenty of pass-rush juice and spent $100M on Christian Wilkins. He's also been drafted ahead in this mock. Walker: They are already invested into three edge rushers, and I don't think many view Walker as an off-ball. Jeanty: He's the best player available, but it's at the least valuable position of the top visitors. Spytek just hit on Day 3 RB Bucky Irving, and OC Chip Kelly has connections to other backs later on. Feels like a luxury pick for a team not ready for it. Johnson: They are desperate for outside CB help, he's a scheme fit in this zone defense, and he's a Michigan alum like GM John Spytek and Tom Brady. Interesting. McMillan: Pete's son, Brennan, is an assistant and happened to be the OC at Arizona in 2023 when he averaged 108 YPG. The Raiders currently have Tre Tucker and "Ramel Keyton" as starters on the perimeter. It's a massive need, and he'd be a sweet compliment to Brock Bowers and a great fit for Geno Smith in the intermediate game.
Justin Fields' pressure numbers remain worst in the league, and new HC Aaron Glenn is used to having an elite OL from his days in Detroit. Membou isn't Penei Sewell, but the bull case is there. With RT Morgan Moses gone, the lone spot on the OL up for grabs is the position Membou dominated at against big-time SEC competition.
Albert Breer believes Walker's range is from 4th to 8th overall. Walker isn't a fit for everyone because he is so small, but the Panthers addressed their interior DL in free agency and can use a chess piece menace. He also has off-ball history, which happens to be the position of GM Dan Morgan. It's time for Carolina to find a potential sack artist off the edge. Walker is an inexperienced shrunken Micah Parsons in terms of style and usage.
This is a fringe best player available selection (9th overall in consensus boards), and he's a classic Saints player in the mold of Taysom Hill with more receiving chops. Penn State gave him the gadget plays Hill had, plus won at the catch point in the red zone and on back shoulders. This team is so lifeless based on the Derek Carr contract and long-term salary cap that they may take their 2025 medicine and be patient with their QB room.
Quietly, the Bears don't have many glaring needs. Maybe EDGE, DT, or LT, but take LT for example. They have Braxton Jones and developmental backup Kiran Amegadjie there already. Even in this Caleb Williams rebuild, they are at the point where they can take a luxury pick at RB or TE if they are best player available. That's what they do here with Jeanty (4th in consensus rankings), as new HC Ben Johnson attempts to replicate the Jahmyr Gibbs selection with the Lions. Ironically, Jeanty is actually a supercharged David Montgomery type that should ball out behind Chicago's new guards.
History repeats itself. The 49ers once again spend a 1st-round pick on a DL, joining Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas, Nick Bosa, and Javon Kinlaw since 2015. But it goes beyond that. Both Armstead and Buckner were Oregon Ducks, as is current CB Deommodore Lenoir. All dot connecting aside, Harmon is a total monster as a 3-tech who can bounce around the defensive line with power, speed, motor, and pass rush moves.
Trevon Diggs' knee injury is severe, to the point he might not just play this year but it may impact his entire career. With other bills to pay, I don't think he's long for Dallas and they don't have starters beyond DaRon Bland right now. Johnson is polarizing because his intelligence, length, and ball skills make him an opportunistic zone defender, but he also skipped out on the forty because he's slower and skipped out on much of his final season due to injury. His range of outcomes is wide. He's 12th on consensus boards.
This is a wild card selection because CB Jalen Ramsey and WR Tyreek Hill are trade candidate on draft weekend. It appears this team is throwing in the towel on their "all in" window from the last few years, which often means securing up the OL. Not a bad idea to protect Tua Tagovailoa and to get that ground game going after a highly disappointing 2024 season. Banks would compete with 2023 2nd-round LT Patrick Paul, with the loser likely pivoting to guard. Both are needs with LT Terron Armstead retiring. Opinions are split on Banks' evaluation, but his movement skills are awesome for this wide zone and space-eating offense. He routinely lit up defenders on the move in the screen game. Perfect fit.
The offense has more weapons than balls to go around already, and it's only fair for new DC Lou Anarumo to get some more firepower on this mediocre defense. They have DL depth and added Charvarius Ward at CB, but they are missing a starting LB. Campbell is a total stud and pops in the athletic testing that GM Chris Ballard covets. The torn labrum surgery muddies his draft range, but if fully healthy, he'd squarely be a top-20 selection. His expected timetable to return is July-August, so I'm taking the optimistic angle here. He's 14th in consensus rankings.
Atlanta has never been able to rush the passer, and Green has the production and athleticism to profile as an EDGE1. Green sits at 13th in consensus rankings but has a wider range of outcomes based on the two sexual assault allegations in his past. The Falcons seem to be okay with the backstory, as HC Raheem Morris was present at the Marshall Pro Day.
This pick almost has to go towards defense, and this is a sweet spot. They are missing a young DT, depth at EDGE, and multiple starters at CB. They at least added EDGE Josh Sweat, NT Dalvin Tomlinson, and DT Calais Campbell this offseason, while not finding a starter at corner. They may be hoping CB Will Johnson falls into their zone defense laps, but he didn't. Instead, they opt for the traits-based swing in Stewart. There is no consensus around Stewart because he's the most traits versus production guy in the class, but in rankings, he's at 16th overall on average.
There hasn't been a resolution to EDGE Trey Hendrickson's contract and trade demands, and even if that gets sorted out, the Bengals need more juice up front. Williams is only 20 years old but played as a true freshman for Georgia. He's very physical, good against the run, and has the length to develop into a legit pass rusher long term. Cincy pretty much only drafts from the elite schools early and typically drafts younger players. Williams is 15th in consensus rankings.
This play-action offense under OC Klint Kubiak is best with a downfield threat. Golden's 4.29 forty takes care of that, and I think he has more route running chops than the typical speedster despite fairly limited production in his breakout year with Texas. He has the athleticism to turn into a fantastic route runner, and what better way to get development than by learning from Cooper Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Golden is 18th in consensus rankings.
This would qualify as best player available (11th in consensus rankings). Loveland is a potential super star receiving TE, and he'd be afforded a lot of clean matchups with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still kicking. Neither should be counted on given their ages and injury history, and the Michigan product is clearly the best remaining pass catcher. He runs real intermediate and downfield routes at 6'6"/248. New OC Josh Grizzard is a pass-game coordinator and WRs coach, so giving him another weapon as he looks to replace Liam Coen is wise.
How many times have they said they wanted RBs this offseason? Hampton isn't the joker type, but he is an absolute size/speed hammer on the ground with soft enough hands to stay in for a healthy amount of touches. They can look for a change-of-pace RB or a receiving-based TE in Round 2-3 if they want a true joker type.
Aaron Rodgers still considering retirement a week out from the draft is a flashing red sign that they have to take a QB if they like one in Round 1. Dart isn't for everyone, but he is an ideal scheme fit for OC Arthur Smith's play-action based system. He routinely threw the deep ball, which is music to DK Metcalf's and George Pickens' ears, and he provides the dual-threat ability the Steelers had with Justin Fields (just not to that level). If Rodgers wants to show up, then Dart would do well to sit for a year. If he doesn't come, at least the Steelers have some young hope again.
Los Angeles happens to have one of the worst defensive line in the NFL, and this is a trenches first front office. Investments will be made. Grant just happens to be a perfect scheme fit and one of Jim Harbaugh's all time favorite recruits. I believe he'll be a better pass rusher than almost all nose tackles in a few years. We know he'll be an asset against the run in the meantime.
They had him in for an official visit, and he'd be another upside swing on a defensive line that is still missing that dude. Nolen's flashes are that of being a dude, but he has an inconsistent motor. He would have no excuses of bringing his best pass-rush energy in Green Bay given the rotation they'd be set up to play with.
DC Brian Flores asks a lot of his safeties in this scheme, and Starks has been able to handle all of it at Georgia. They moved him all over, and he has played enough slot man coverage to be an option on some of their blitz looks. His lack of speed and frequent missed tackles may not suit everyone, but his versatility is an asset here. This is probably Harrison Smith's final season. Take notes, Starks.
Houston needed new leadership on the OL, which is why the fired and traded a bunch of key people attached to that group. While Booker scares off many with concerning athletic traits, he is a brick house in terms of strength and broadness. In a downhill scheme with new OC Nick Caley, he is a fit on the field and certainly off of it. He was a high character leader for Alabama, where HC Demeco Ryans coached. Even with the trade of LT Laremy Tunsil, it's really the interior OL that's most concerning about this 2025 depth chart.
Los Angeles seems to gravitate towards high football IQ players, and Barron plays like one. He's played linebacker, safety, nickel, and outside corner over the years at Texas, though projects as a nickel in the NFL with some outside corner ability after running a 4.40 forty. He's a willing tackler, and this division has Trey McBride, George Kittle, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to deal with in the slot. Barron is 19th on consensus boards, but opinions are split based on if he can go top-20 as a nickel.
This may seem like an odd fit at first, but it's really great imo. Egbuka is physical in the run game and reliable in the pass game. (Trade candidate) Mark Andrews is no longer either of those, and the Ohio State career receptions leader would essentially slide into that role as the Ravens turn into a more 3-WR set based team. Egbuka would also take pressure off Zay Flowers as a higher-volume guy where he's not at his best and also puts Rashod Bateman as a vertical-based No. 3 where he's at his best. If you squint, Egbuka did have some nice man coverage routes from the boundary in spurts, too. I'm a big fan.
He's the only potential 1st-rounder with an official visit that we know about, and it makes sense. The NDSU left tackle projects as a guard (or maybe center) in the pros, and the Lions have an open spot there for the first time in a bit. It's been a priority position for this regime.
They lost do-everything S Jeremy Chinn this offseason, and Emmanwori is a bigger and more athletic version of that role if he hits.
They had him in for a visit, and he checks a lot of boxes. His best work is in zone coverage, which is what the Bills play a ton of. The depth chart is barren, and Amos' size makes him a nice tackler, too.
They've already had 7 visits on offensive linemen, and I'm not convinced the Jaylon Smith contract from this offseason is enough to ignore LT in the draft. Conerly is very athletic but needs another year or two to get stronger. If he does, he's Mahomes' long-term blindside protector. That's very valuable.
There are a lot of risks in this 1st round, but Ezeiruaku is not one of them. He has length, athleticism, production, character, and an arsenal of moves, and the Eagles' depth on the DL should hide Ezeiruaku's forgettable bull rush strength in the short-term. With DT Milton Williams and EDGE Josh Sweat gone, we should expect DL here. The Boston College alum is 29th on consensus boards, and they've already had him in for a visit.
Just missed the cut: QB Shedeur Sanders (upside), OT Josh Simmons (injury), EDGE James Pearce (character), WR Luther Burden (character), CB Maxwell Hairston (size), RB TreVeyon Henderson (positional value), QB Jalen Milroe (development), OG Donovan Jackson (positional value), LB Carson Schwesinger (positional value), TE Mason Taylor (positional value), EDGE Nic Scourton (development).
33. Browns: QB3 Jalen Milroe (OC was Milroe's OC in 2023. Upside play)
34. Giants: QB4 Shedeur Sanders (Lack of upside hurts his stock)
35. Titans: WR5 Luther Burden (Slot upgrade on juiceless offense)
36. Jaguars: WR6 Jaylin Noel (Replaces his closest comparison)
37. Raiders: CB4 Maxwell Hairston (Zone corner with 4.2 speed)
38. Patriots: OG3 Donovan Jackson (Can battle with Campbell for LT/LG)
39. Bears: EDGE7 James Pearce (Steal if character checks out. Speed)
40. Saints: QB5 Tyler Shough (Can start right away and throw deep)
41. Bears: RB3 TreVeyon Henderson (RB coach reportedly loves him. They won't double up after Jeanty. Just wanted to acknowledge that.)
42. Jets: TE3 Mason Taylor (Reliable underneath target with some speed)
43. 49ers: OT5 Josh Simmons (Could go way earlier if knee is okay)
44. Cowboys: EDGE8 Nic Scourton (Lost weight and stock rose)
45. Colts: OG4 Marcus Mbow (Wide zone specialist fits Indy)
46. Falcons: LB2 Carson Schwesinger (Great coverage LB)
47. Cardinals: CB5 Shavon Revel (CB Diggs might be done)
48. Dolphins: CB6 Benjamin Morrison (Jalen Ramsey is likely moved)
49. Bengals: OG5 Jonah Savaiinaea (Thick OG to replace Cappa)
50. Seahawks: C1 Jared Wilson (Elite athlete for wide zone scheme)
51. Broncos: TE4 Elijah Arroyo (Extremely fast TE on vertical routes)
52. Seahawks: OG6 Tate Ratledge (Another Georgia IOL. Why not)
53. Buccaneers: CB7 Azareye'h Thomas (Local, physical press man)
54. Packers: WR7 Jayden Higgins (Outside ball winner is a need)
55. Chargers: WR8 Kyle Williams (Explosive outside receiver)
56. Bills: DT5 Tyleik Williams (Daquon Jones is 33 years old)
57. Panthers: EDGE9 JT Tuimoloau (Run stuffer opposite of Walker)
58. Texans: OT6 Aireontae Ersery (Laremy Tunsil replacement)
60. Lions: DT6 Darius Alexander (Bull rusher from Toledo)
61. Commanders: EDGE10 Landon Jackson (This DE depth chart is bad)
62. Bills: S3 Kevin Winston Jr. (Free safety competition for Hamlin)
63. Chiefs: DT7 Alfred Collins (Tershawn Wharton replacement)
64. Eagles: TE5 Harold Fannin (College coach is in Philly now)